Biden regains his strong lead among likely voters, leading President Trump in the latest 0ptimus Analytics poll by seven percentage points (47.5%- 40.4%). Although most voters are pretty sure for whom they would vote, eight percent of likely voters report they are still “not sure” who to support at the polls.
Biden’s lead spans across all age cohorts within our data, holding his narrowest lead among 45-64 year olds (4.8 points) and the widest among those aged 35 to 44 (12.4 points). Significantly, Biden remains ahead among those aged 65 years or older by six percentage points – a demographic group that was key to Trump’s 2016 victory.
When it comes to handling specific issues, likely voters favor Biden to Trump on almost each of the issues we presented. On race relations and coronavirus, likely voters report that they would trust Biden more than Trump by 17 and 13 percentage points, respectively. Biden more narrowly leads Trump on the issues of unemployment (3.6 points) and the economy (1.6 points), though it is worth noting the differences between the two candidates is within the survey’s margin of error. Trump polls best on the issue of crime, where likely voters’ trust is evenly split across Biden and Trump at 50-50.
Americans are giving a slight edge to Joe Biden as the favorite with a plurality of both adults and likely voters reporting they expect Joe Biden to win the presidential election this November. As the figure above indicates, however, partisans are fairly confident that their own party’s standard-bearer will win the election. Among likely voters, 75% of Republicans think Trump will win re-election and 75% of Democrats think Biden will win the election. Independents are nearly evenly split in their predictions with one-in-four (24.3%) independent voters reporting they are “not sure” who will win the election.
A plurality of both adults and likely voters believe the coronavirus pandemic is the most important political issue facing the United States today (41% and 43.2%, respectively). Among adult respondents, there is a clear correlation between a respondent’s age and whether they think coronavirus is the most important political issue: only 32% of 18 to 34 year olds think the virus is the most important political issue while 53.6% of those 65 or older agree.
President Trump continues to poll underwater when it comes to his handling of the coronavirus with 55% of likely voters reporting they either strongly disapprove or somewhat disapprove of his job dealing with the virus. Nevertheless, Trump is out-performing Congress by almost ten points when it comes to handling this issue. By net approval, Trump has an approval of -11 percentage points while Congress has a net approval of -20 points. Governors continue to outperform both Trump and Congress, with 65% of likely voters approving of the job their state’s governor is doing.
Americans are fully embracing face masks when they leave their home. Sixty-nine percent of adults report “always” wearing a mask or face covering when they leave home with an additional one-in-five Americans reporting they “sometimes” wear a mask. With COVID-19 continuing to infect the nation, all partisan respondents are reporting increased mask use since our last survey at the end of June. Republicans have seen the steepest increase since late June when 74% of Republican adults reported wearing masks – a figure that is now up to 88%.
A majority of adults remain very worried (28.4%) or somewhat worried (35.3%) that they or a family member may contract the virus. With nearly 65% of adults in the Northeast, Midwest, or South are worried about virus spread, only 58% of adults in the West are similarly worried.
Full toplines, crosstabs, and methodology information can be found on our Github repository.